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Canadian political leaders - someone will lose face

I’ve avoided writing about the whole detent going in Ottawa, mostly because the whole thing has been making me utterly furious - almost apoplectic.

Recently, for the first time in 20 years I’ve become more politically active at all four levels of government that sit, some heavier than others, on top of us - federal, provincial, municipal and neighbourhood.  I purchased memberships, made donations, made time to visit candidates offices and chat with them when they dropped by on campaign, put up lawn signs, wrote letters to the editor and showed up at city hall.   It’s mostly been an enjoyable couple of years, until the past two weeks.

This whole showdown has been building for months, since well before the last election, ever since the Liberals selected the ineffectual, seemingly-befuddled and, in hindsight, not-very-bright Stephan Dion (he not she) to lead the party.  Since he was everyone’s third choice and had all the leadership skills of your weird uncle, he and his cronies consistently bent to the will of the Conservatives in parliament, since the Liberals seemed convinced, and rightly so given the last election, that Dion could never win a mandate from the Canadian voters.

The unfortunate outcome of this was continued pushing by the Conservatives, post the Fall 2008 election.  Since the Conservatives won a larger minority their leader Stephen Harper felt that he had a blank cheque that he could continually draw on.  It all came to a head last week when Jim (not Joe) Flaherty showed strong interest in cancelling the public funding afforded all national political parties - an amount totalling about $30 million a year - seemingly as an austerity move.  This public funding policy is the primary reason that the opposition parties could mount a campaign since they couldn’t seem to attract private donors through their mediocre policies.

Egged on, and under the guise of ranting for an economic stimulus they said was due but not forthcoming, the opposition parties picked up the kernel of a coalition that had, seemingly, been discussed before the election.  In the end the real reason for banding together was the impending loss of their campaign cash cow.  Le petite gars, Jean Chrétien, former Prime Minister, and Ed Broadbent, prior leader of the feckless NDP brokered a power sharing deal that would see the three opposition parties approach the Governor General, Michaëlle Jean, to form a coalition government after the fall of the Conservatives in an impending non-confidence vote.

This is where we stand today.  Let’s present the cast of characters…

Prime Minister Stephen Harper
This guy pushed his luck harder and farther than you’d think possible, especially since the opposition kept blinking like a crossing light.  He’s exceptionally tight with the power, doling out responsibility to his ministers with an eyedropper.  Smart, prickly, scary and cold are the adjectives most used to describe him in the press.  With the last gamble on the party funding he pushed too far and precipitated this entire mess at a very bad time.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty
Stephen Harper’s right hand dude, Mr. Flaherty has been the economic presence for the policies that the Prime Minister has been enacting.  He presented the $30 million dare to parliament, making him culpable in the affair as well.  He’s reasonably well liked by those that don’t invest in the stock market.

The Conservative Caucus
Mostly made up of wall flowers, with some notable exceptions.  Since they didn’t suggest to their indomitable leader that the public funding move was a stunt too many, they are responsible for allowing the precipitation to happen.

Stephan Dion
Leader of the opposition, Mr. Dion has shown himself to be an uncredible leader with the spinal rigidity of of a wet mitt.  He has no charisma, is obviously less intelligent than we’d been led to believe and doesn’t have the grace to step aside when he was single-handedly responsible for the demise of the Liberals.  It is suspected that the reason he’s hung around beyond his best-before is that the current putsch was in motion before the election.  It is obvious that he’s waiting to become Prime Minister so that he can prove to everyone that he doesn’t ride the short bus.

Jean Chrétien
The former Prime Minister of Canada, Mr. Chrétien is an exceptionally astute and self-entitled politician wrapped around a warm thuggish interior.  Given that he stepped in to broker the coalition, it’s quite obvious that he’s the only one with any cohones and savvy left in the Liberal party.  With this move he’ll likely continue to be the power behind the throne if the soft coup reaches fruition.  It has become obvious, much too late, that he is a much better alternative than the current crop of Liberal leadership hopefuls.

Michael Ignatieff
An ex-ex-pat academic who has in the past endearingly labelled Canada as too parochial, Mr. Ignatieff returned to Canada in anticipation of snatching the Liberal crown away from a weak platter of alternatives.  Rumours tagged him as ready to break out on his own in the current debacle and make nice with the Conservatives, but has since been reigned in by le petite gars.  He’s currently standing beside his party pals, and seems like he’s got enough savvy to gain some ground for the 2009 leadership race if he doesn’t stand too close to Dion.

Bob Rae
A very-publicly-reformed, former hard-nosed socialist, Bob Rae is responsible for ruining Ontario’s economy in the 80s and early 90s.  He’s been mostly mute through this whole thing and seems to be biding his time for the Liberal party leadership run next year.

Ed Broadbent
The elder statesman of the NDP, Mr. Broadbent has come out of hiding to work with Chrétien, to put together the agglomeration of parties that are attempting to unseat the Conservatives.  It’s quite likely that Chrétien called Broadbent to do the deal given that talking to anyone else in the NDP would have enraged him.

Jack Layton
Current leader of the economically-malicious NDP, Mr. Layton is getting seriously excited as he’s hoping to become the first NDP federal minister in history.  His party has been continually losing support over the past many years as people realize that automobile factory workers don’t mix well with gays and environmentalists, and have decided that such a schizophrenic group can’t really be capable.  If the new coalition gets to ruling status he’ll show himself to be incompetent soon enough, unless he gets his coveted Minister of the Environment where nonsense, disguised as science, will get a free ride.

Gilles Duceppe
As an opportunist of a rare order and leader of the Bloc Québecois, Mr. Duceppe leads the party that continually holds TROC hostage for cash and favours and perennially represents separatism in Ottawa.  The Bloc does an excellent job of extracting funds from Canadian citizens since Canada “really wants Québec to stay in Canada.”  Duceppe will hold a significant chunk of power in the new coalition, ruling a country that he’d like to split asunder.  If the Bloc (or their provincial counterparts the Parti) ever get their wish, it will be shown that promoting separation based only on cultural differences, with an utter lack of economic acumen, is a poor way to run a country.

Now that you’ve met everyone here’s what’s likely to happen if the coup occurs.

It is reasonably likely that the attempted coalition group will be reduced to infighting within a couple of months, and will present an incoherent economic plan to dole out billions on things that are not currently broken.  This looting of public money will drive the federal government into deep deficit and scare the crap out of a Canada that still remembers the Trudeau/Turner spendthrift years and Mulroney/Wilson continued deficit legacy.  The stock market will tank further as the rest of the world sees the kleptocratic love-in trot out one socialist policy after another, driving capital to more friendly shores.

When this occurs, only the most savvy of the Liberal leadership hopefuls will emerge with their heads still attached.  Dion will go down in history as the most vilified Canadian politician of the last 400 years.  Jack Layton, having expended his energy grappling with awesome power will make the NDP seem even more frightening than they are.  The Bloc won’t give a shit, since screwing with Canada is their raison d’etre.  Stephen Harper will have to resign in disgrace as his party and supporters soundly realize that he screwed their chances of a majority.

Alternative futures would include these better and worse possibilities.

1) Better: Stephen Harper resigns now and a new leader, possibly John Baird, Peter MacKay or Tony Clement, but certainly not Rob Anders, steps forward in the next few days to negotiate in good faith with the Liberals.  The Liberals bite and Dion fades away more gracefully and Canadians get a few more months of reasonably stable government, hopefully not screwing up and making the current economic issues worse.  Conservative party supporters alternatively throw best wishes and cinder blocks in Harper’s direction.

1a) Even Better: Harper stands tough, making Chrétien look like a wimp, and the Liberals fold like an unstarched napkin, substantiating that they are no longer the natural ruling party.  The Bloc and Parti make fun of Dion like a pack of 8 year-olds in the school yard.  Ignatieff, decides to make some hay with the failure stating that he wasn’t into the idea and gains some stature in the Canadian public before he’s shanked down by the river, by someone with a thick Québecois accent.  The NDP go back to being utterly irrelevant. (NEW!)

2) Worse: Stephen Harper resigns and everyone lets parliament dissolve.  After an exceptionally ugly early 2009 election campaign, we are stuck with a less effective and noticeably more gun-shy minority government, that only slightly significantly screws Canadians during the current US fueled financial mess.

3) Worse: The Governor General tells the coalition to get lost since she’s unwilling to be seriously hated, and we fall into a January election.  People either vote or stay away in droves and we get a parliament that looks a bit like what we have right now, minus $300 million in our money.  If the Liberals could postpone the vote and get a new leader in place, things might change a bit, but given the current crop of candidates they’re likely to do only marginally better than Dion.

4) Unsure: After the coalition tanks or the GG dissolves parliament., Chrétien steps forward and becomes Liberal Party leader.  Canadians are so happy to have a stable majority government that they forgive the new/old Prime Minister his sleazy, street-fighting ways and everyone buys lead-free commemorative plates with Jean and Aline on them.  Chrétien eventually beats ghost-communing Mackenzie King’s record.

5) Interesting: The provincial Premiers come together and take back the powers they’ve tacitly granted the federal government over the past 5 decades.  This greatly reduces the Federal Government nannying of the country and the entire landscape of the country changes overnight.  With newly invigorated provincial governments, Canadians get screwed in entirely new ways by their legislatures.  PEI disappears as a province since it’s got fewer people than Kitchener.

6) Not Awesome: The Americans see the opportunity to distract themselves with a military incursion north.  Obama becomes head of state.

Regardless of how this turns out, Stephen Harper will look the opposite of bullet proof.  Stephan Dion will be viewed as a Gollum-like opportunist and will go to live in the wilds.  Jack Layton will be seen as functionally inept instead of just campaign foolish.

The only guy that’ll come out of this looking good is the one guy that should’ve been shut out of the entire process - Gil Duceppe.  The rest of Canada will then hate Quebec separatism even more and begin to hope that the province finally separates.  After separation, Quebec comes to its senses, votes in a smart, financially and policy savvy government and becomes the next Ireland, doubling GDP per head in 5 years.

The rest of Canada will muddle along and still be nice place to raise a family.  Better than Bolivia anyway.

Anything here rankle you? Feeling overly perturbed or elated? Leave a comment below. or subscribe to the Sauce Captain feed.

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